Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 59%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Austin departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 44% over 33 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 59%
What changed: 44% → 59% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 33 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST · 1.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?