tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Developing Delay AUS departures

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 62%

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Austin departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 20 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST · 10.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 62%

    What changed: 50% → 62% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Saturday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)62% over 20 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 AM CST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?