Model raises expected cancellations to about 5 among Austin departures 6–9 AM Saturday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among Austin departures 6–9 AM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.6 over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM CST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Austin departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 5 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.5 over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 6 among Austin departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 5 → 6 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.6 over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM CST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Austin departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 3 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.5 over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM CST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 5 among Austin departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 3 → 5 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.3 over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 0.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:01 AM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.