tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay AUS departures

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 88%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Austin departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 49 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 7:00 AM CST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 14:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 67%

    What changed: 49% → 67% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 49 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 1:00 PM CST · 3.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 88%

    What changed: 67% → 88% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Friday an average 88% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)88% over 49 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.