tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 58 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay AUS departures

Model forecasts 84% delay risk for Austin departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 84% delay risk for Austin departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)84% over 15 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 9:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.