Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 36%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 11:56 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Austin departures noon–3 PM Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 40% over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM CST · 3.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 14:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 36%, near normal
What changed: 40% → 36%; calm-weather level 30%
Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Friday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 36% over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM CST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?