Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 2:27 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Austin departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 11:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 32 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM CST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 44%
What changed: 55% → 44% since the 11:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 44% over 32 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal
What changed: 44% → 30%; calm-weather level 13%
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 30% over 32 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST · 6.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?