Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 31%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 12:57 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Austin departures 6–9 AM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 AM Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 9:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 40% over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM CST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 31%, near normal
What changed: 40% → 31%; calm-weather level 8%
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 AM Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 31% over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?