tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 81 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 PM Monday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View SFOFlights at SFO

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Monday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 98 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 12:00 PM PDT · 4.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Mon Oct 26, 6:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.