tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 81 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 75%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 12:00 PM PDT · 7.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 65%

    What changed: 42% → 65% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 6:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 6:00 PM PDT · 1.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 02:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 75%

    What changed: 65% → 75% since the 6:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)75% over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 7:00 PM PDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 02:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Mon Oct 26, 9:01 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.