tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay DAL departures

Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 60%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View DALFlights at DAL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 53% delay risk for Love Field departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 2:00 PM CDT · 5.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 60%

    What changed: 53% → 60% since the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 5:00 PM CDT · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Mon Oct 26, 9:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.