Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
What changed: airport closure no longer listed
The airport closure at Love Field (DAL) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:59 AM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 8:32 PM CST.
What changed: 61% → 74% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 74%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 55% → 64% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 64%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 3 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 37 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 33% → 30%; calm-weather level 9%
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 30%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 52% → 64% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 64%Horizon 10.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 19 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (49%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 4:45 PM and 5:45 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Love Field arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 4:45 PM–5:45 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 22%
Of 13 departures that took off between 1:59 PM and 2:59 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 1:59 PM–2:59 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 30%
What changed: 79% → 90% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Saturday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 90%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 5 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 33 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 78% → 89% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Saturday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 89%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of the 21 departures scheduled from Love Field (DAL) between 12:00 PM and 1:30 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into DAL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 12:00 PM–1:30 PM CSTTight turns 8 of 17Share 47%
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 40 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 63% → 75% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Saturday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 75%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 3 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 40 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 14 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 33 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 7.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 15 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 36 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 17 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 40 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 16 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 36 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 13 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 40% → 30%; calm-weather level 15%
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 30%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 28 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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