Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 89%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 6
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Love Field departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 33 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 64%
What changed: 58% → 64% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Saturday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 64% over 33 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST · 7.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 62%
What changed: 64% → 62% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Saturday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 62% over 33 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM CST · 6.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 65%
What changed: 62% → 65% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Saturday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 65% over 33 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 78%
What changed: 65% → 78% since the 8:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Saturday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 78% over 33 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 89%
What changed: 78% → 89% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Saturday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 89% over 33 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 18:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 3:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.