Model raises Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 63%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Love Field departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 44% over 40 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 59%
What changed: 44% → 59% since the 12:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 39 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 53%
What changed: 59% → 53% since the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 40 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM CST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 63%
What changed: 53% → 63% since the 3:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Saturday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 62% over 40 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST · 4.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?