Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 64%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Love Field departures noon–3 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 37 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM CST · 21.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:28 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 64%
What changed: 52% → 64% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 64% over 36 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM CST · 10.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?