Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 74%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 61% delay risk for Love Field departures 3–6 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 33 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM CST · 22.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 22:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 74%
What changed: 61% → 74% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 74% over 34 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?