Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 30%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 2:27 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 44% over 37 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM CST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 02:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday at 33%
What changed: 44% → 33% since the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 33% over 37 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM CST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 30%, near normal
What changed: 33% → 30%; calm-weather level 9%
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 30% over 37 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM CST · 3.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?