Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 64%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Love Field departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 39 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST · 22.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 55%
What changed: 41% → 55% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 40 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM CST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 55%
What changed: 55% → 55% since the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 40 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM CST · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 64%
What changed: 55% → 64% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 64% over 40 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?