tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories <1 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 65 minLightning <1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay DAL departures

Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 4:56 AM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View DALFlights at DAL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Love Field departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 36 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal

    What changed: 40% → 30%; calm-weather level 15%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)30% over 36 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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