tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 224 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 224 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (224 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (224 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 60%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 50 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 7:00 PM MST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 02:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 60%

    What changed: 48% → 60% since the 7:00 PM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 50 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 8:00 PM MST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 03:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Mon Oct 26, 9:01 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.