Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Tuesday to 18%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 12:57 AM CDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Austin departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 11:00 PM CDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-27 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 43 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 26, 11:00 PM CDT · 9.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-27 04:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Tuesday to 18%, near normal
What changed: 42% → 18%; calm-weather level 11%
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 18% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 12:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-27 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 18% over 43 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Oct 27, 12:00 AM CDT · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-27 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?