Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3
- Current state
- Resolved at 7:56 AM EDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 11 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 51 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.8 over 51 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 4:00 PM EDT · 22.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 11 → 9 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 53 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.6 over 53 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 5:00 PM EDT · 21.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 9 → 12 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 52 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (24%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.3 over 52 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 7:00 PM EDT · 19.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 23:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 12 → 7 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 52 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.8 over 52 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 8:00 PM EDT · 17.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 5 among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 7 → 5 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 52 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~4.9 over 52 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 3:00 AM EDT · 10.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 08:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3
What changed: about 5 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 52 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~2.6 over 52 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 7:00 AM EDT · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?