tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 87 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay FLL departures

Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 46%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View FLLFlights at FLL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 10:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 52 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 10:00 AM EDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 46%

    What changed: 58% → 46% since the 10:00 AM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Sunday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 52 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 2:00 PM EDT · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Oct 18, 3:01 PM EDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.