tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay FLL departures

Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 43%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 6:57 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 52 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 3:00 PM EDT · 19.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 54%

    What changed: 41% → 54% since the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Sunday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 5:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 52 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 5:00 AM EDT · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 09:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 43%, near normal

    What changed: 54% → 43%; calm-weather level 36%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Sunday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 6:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 52 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 6:00 AM EDT · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 10:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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