tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay FLL departures

Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 40%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 6:57 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 11:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 69 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 11:00 PM EDT · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 03:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 40%, near normal

    What changed: 41% → 40%; calm-weather level 34%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 69 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 6:00 AM EDT · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 10:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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