Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 17 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (25%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~17.2 over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 10:00 AM EDT · 22.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 14:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 17 → 15 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.9 over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 4:00 PM EDT · 16.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 15 → 10 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.5 over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 5:00 PM EDT · 15.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 10 → 15 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~15.0 over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 7:00 PM EDT · 13.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 23:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 10 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 15 → 10 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 69 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.1 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 8:00 PM EDT · 11.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 10 → 8 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 69 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.9 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 9:00 PM EDT · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 6 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 8 → 6 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 69 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.5 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 12:00 AM EDT · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 04:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 6 → 3 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 69 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.1 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 2:00 AM EDT · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 06:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Oct 18, 9:01 AM EDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.