tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Sunday to 29%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 10:56 PM PDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Las Vegas departures midnight–3 AM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Sunday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 8:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 20 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 31, 8:00 PM PDT · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Sunday to 29%, near normal

    What changed: 45% → 29%; calm-weather level 22%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Sunday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 10:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)29% over 22 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 31, 10:00 PM PDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 05:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?