Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 57%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 8:57 AM PST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 65% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 6–9 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Sunday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 9:00 PM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 65% over 101 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 31, 9:00 PM PDT · 21.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 57%, near normal
What changed: 65% → 57%; calm-weather level 50%
Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Sunday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 106 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 8:00 AM PST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 16:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?