tailodds FORECAST
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Observed Major Resolved Delay AUS departures

Austin departure delays worsen: 79% late in the last hour

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.)
Started
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Observed

    Austin departures running late: 45% left 15+ min late in the last hour

    Of 20 departures that took off between 8:18 AM and 9:18 AM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 12% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window8:18 AM–9:18 AM CST
    Sample20 flights, 9 late (45%)
    Comparison12% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour
    Median delay10.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 15:18 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Observed

    Austin departure delays worsen: 79% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 45% → 79%

    Of 14 departures that took off between 7:49 PM and 8:49 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 42% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window7:49 PM–8:49 PM CST
    Sample14 flights, 11 late (79%)
    Comparison42% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour
    Median delay51.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 02:49 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 2, 3:24 AM CST: No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.