Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 56%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 11:58 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 64% delay risk for Hobby departures 6–9 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 64% over 47 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 9:00 AM CST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 56%, near normal
What changed: 64% → 56%; calm-weather level 48%
Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Sunday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 47 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 17:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?