Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 53%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 11:58 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 66% delay risk for Hobby departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 66% over 32 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 10:00 AM CST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 16:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 53%, near normal
What changed: 66% → 53%; calm-weather level 49%
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 32 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 17:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?