tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 1 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 37%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 8:56 PM PDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 31 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 5:00 PM PDT · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 37%, near normal

    What changed: 40% → 37%; calm-weather level 30%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 8:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)37% over 32 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 8:00 PM PDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?