tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay DAL departures

Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 88%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View DALFlights at DAL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 74% delay risk for Love Field departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)74% over 47 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 2:00 PM CST · 5.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 21:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 88%

    What changed: 74% → 88% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 88% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)88% over 47 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 6:00 PM CST · 1.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 01:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 1, 9:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.