Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Monday to 27%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 5:58 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Hobby departures 9 AM–noon Monday
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 AM–noon Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 11:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 43% over 46 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 11:00 PM CST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Monday to 27%, near normal
What changed: 43% → 27%; calm-weather level 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 AM–noon Monday an average 27% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 27% over 49 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 5:00 AM CST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 11:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?