tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay HOU departures

Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 75%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View HOUFlights at HOU

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Hobby departures 6–9 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Monday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 47 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 8:00 AM CST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 75%

    What changed: 58% → 75% since the 8:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Monday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)75% over 47 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 3:00 PM CST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 2, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.