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Forecast Major Resolved Delay HOU departures

Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 67%

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started: Mon Nov 2, 10:00 AM CST
Latest activity: Mon Nov 2, 5:57 PM CST
Updates: 4

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Mon Nov 2, 10:58 AM CST

Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Hobby departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	56% over 32 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Mon Nov 2, 10:00 AM CST · 10.0 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Mon Nov 2, 10:00 AM CST
Ingested	Mon Nov 2, 10:58 AM CST
Published here	Mon Nov 2, 10:58 AM CST (2026-11-02 16:58 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Mon Nov 2, 3:57 PM CST

Updated model puts Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday at 73%

What changed: 56% → 73% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	73% over 32 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Mon Nov 2, 3:00 PM CST · 5.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
Source event time	Mon Nov 2, 3:00 PM CST
Ingested	Mon Nov 2, 3:57 PM CST
Published here	Mon Nov 2, 3:57 PM CST (2026-11-02 21:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Mon Nov 2, 4:57 PM CST

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 66%

What changed: 73% → 66% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	66% over 32 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Mon Nov 2, 4:00 PM CST · 4.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Mon Nov 2, 4:00 PM CST
Ingested	Mon Nov 2, 4:57 PM CST
Published here	Mon Nov 2, 4:57 PM CST (2026-11-02 22:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Mon Nov 2, 5:57 PM CST