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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay HOU departures

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 45%

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started: Mon Nov 2, 1:00 AM CST
Latest activity: Mon Nov 2, 5:58 AM CST
Updates: 4

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Mon Nov 2, 2:29 AM CST

Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Hobby departures noon–3 PM Monday

Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Hobby noon–3 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	HOU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	51% over 42 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Mon Nov 2, 1:00 AM CST · 9.5 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Mon Nov 2, 1:00 AM CST
Ingested	Mon Nov 2, 2:29 AM CST
Published here	Mon Nov 2, 2:29 AM CST (2026-11-02 08:29 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Mon Nov 2, 2:58 AM CST

Model raises Hobby departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 59%

What changed: 51% → 59% since the 1:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Hobby noon–3 PM Monday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	HOU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	59% over 40 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Mon Nov 2, 2:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Mon Nov 2, 2:00 AM CST
Ingested	Mon Nov 2, 2:58 AM CST
Published here	Mon Nov 2, 2:58 AM CST (2026-11-02 08:58 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Mon Nov 2, 4:42 AM CST

Updated model puts Hobby departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday at 55%

What changed: 59% → 55% since the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Hobby noon–3 PM Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	HOU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	55% over 40 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Mon Nov 2, 3:00 AM CST · 7.3 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
Source event time	Mon Nov 2, 3:00 AM CST
Ingested	Mon Nov 2, 4:42 AM CST
Published here	Mon Nov 2, 4:42 AM CST (2026-11-02 10:42 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Mon Nov 2, 5:58 AM CST