tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 68 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 57%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 93 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 8:00 AM PST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 16:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 57%

    What changed: 46% → 57% since the 8:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Monday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 93 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 1:00 PM PST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 2, 3:01 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.