Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday to 52%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 1:57 PM PST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 5
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 46% delay risk for SFO departures 3–6 PM Tuesday
Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 46% over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 4:00 PM PST · 21.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 01:28 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday to 56%
What changed: 46% → 56% since the 4:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 98 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 11:00 PM PST · 14.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday at 54%
What changed: 56% → 54% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 98 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 3:00 AM PST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 11:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday at 66%
What changed: 54% → 66% since the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 66% over 103 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 12:00 PM PST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 20:59 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday to 52%, near normal
What changed: 66% → 52%; calm-weather level 48%
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 1:00 PM PST · 1.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?