tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to 44%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 43% delay risk for SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Tuesday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 11:00 PM PST · 20.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Tuesday at 58%

    What changed: 43% → 58% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Tuesday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 12:00 PM PST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 20:59 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to 42%

    What changed: 58% → 42% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Tuesday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 1:00 PM PST · 7.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to 44%

    What changed: 42% → 44% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Tuesday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 2:00 PM PST · 5.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 23:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Tue Nov 3, 9:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.