Model raises SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 51%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 6
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 45% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 PM Tuesday
Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 45% over 59 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 7:00 PM PST · 22.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday at 57%
What changed: 45% → 57% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 65 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 10:00 AM PST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 18:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 46%
What changed: 57% → 46% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 46% over 65 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 11:00 AM PST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 20:28 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 64%
What changed: 46% → 64% since the 11:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 64% over 65 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 12:00 PM PST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 20:59 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 48%
What changed: 64% → 48% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 48% over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 1:00 PM PST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 51%
What changed: 48% → 51% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 51% over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 3:00 PM PST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 00:02 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Tue Nov 3, 6:03 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.