tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay IAH departures

Model now puts Bush departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday at 60%, close to its calm-weather level of 56%

Current state
Resolved at 2:59 PM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Bush departures 3–6 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Bush 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetIAH departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 89 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 7:00 PM CST · 18.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 02:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Bush departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday at 60%

    What changed: 41% → 60% since the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Bush 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetIAH departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 89 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 1:00 PM CST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 20:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model now puts Bush departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday at 60%, close to its calm-weather level of 56%

    What changed: 60% → 60%; calm-weather level 56%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Bush 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 56%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetIAH departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 89 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 2:00 PM CST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 20:59 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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