Model lowers Bush departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to 42%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 2:59 PM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Bush departures 9 PM–midnight Tuesday
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Bush 9 PM–midnight Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target IAH departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 45% over 16 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 12:00 PM CST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 18:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Bush departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to 42%, near normal
What changed: 45% → 42%; calm-weather level 38%
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Bush 9 PM–midnight Tuesday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target IAH departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 16 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 2:00 PM CST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 20:59 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?