Model lowers Bush departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 51%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 2:59 PM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Bush departures 6–9 PM Tuesday
Tailodds’ model gives the 144 departures scheduled from Bush 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target IAH departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 43% over 144 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 7:00 PM CST · 21.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 02:28 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Bush departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday at 57%
What changed: 43% → 57% since the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 149 departures scheduled from Bush 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target IAH departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 149 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 1:00 PM CST · 3.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 20:28 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Bush departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 51%, near normal
What changed: 57% → 51%; calm-weather level 47%
Tailodds’ model gives the 150 departures scheduled from Bush 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target IAH departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 51% over 150 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 2:00 PM CST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 20:59 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?