tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay ORD departures

Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Tuesday to 30%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 4:21 AM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 43% delay risk for O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 291 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 291 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 2:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 08:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Tuesday to 30%, near normal

    What changed: 43% → 30%; calm-weather level 22%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 291 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)30% over 291 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 3:00 AM CST · 4.7 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:21 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?