tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay ORD departures

Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 38%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 302 departures scheduled from O'Hare noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 302 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 2:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 08:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts O'Hare departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday at 36%

    What changed: 49% → 36% since the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 302 departures scheduled from O'Hare noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)36% over 302 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 3:00 AM CST · 7.7 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:21 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 49%

    What changed: 36% → 49% since the 3:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 302 departures scheduled from O'Hare noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 302 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 4:00 AM CST · 7.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 38%

    What changed: 49% → 38% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 302 departures scheduled from O'Hare noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)38% over 302 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 5:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 11:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Tue Nov 3, 12:00 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.