Model lowers Tampa departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 28%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 6:58 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Tampa departures noon–3 PM Tuesday
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 5:00 AM EST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 10:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Tampa departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 28%, near normal
What changed: 41% → 28%; calm-weather level 17%
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 28% over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 6:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 11:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?