Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 47% → 67%
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 12:19 AM and 1:19 AM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:19 AM–1:19 AM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 67%Typical 23%
Of the 19 departures scheduled from Tampa (TPA) between 8:27 PM and 9:57 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 16. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into TPA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 8:27 PM–9:57 PM ESTTight turns 11 of 16Share 69%
What changed: 45% → 65% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 65%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 departures that took off between 7:15 PM and 8:15 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:15 PM–8:15 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 69%Typical 36%
What changed: 44% → 58% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 58%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 50% at worst → 23% now
Of 13 departures that took off between 4:12 PM and 5:12 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 4:12 PM–5:12 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 23%Typical 30%
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 11:33 PM and 12:33 AM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:33 PM–12:33 AM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 54% at worst → 12% now
Of 16 departures that took off between 12:02 PM and 1:02 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 12:02 PM–1:02 PM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 12%Typical 19%
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:27 PM and 12:27 AM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:27 PM–12:27 AM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 54% → 62%
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:30 PM and 12:30 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:30 PM–12:30 AM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 62%Typical 23%
What changed: late share 85% → 67%
Of 21 departures that took off between 6:48 PM and 7:48 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:48 PM–7:48 PM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 67%Typical 36%
What changed: 58% → 67% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 67%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 58% at worst → 15% now
Of 13 departures that took off between 1:21 PM and 2:21 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 1:21 PM–2:21 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 15%Typical 25%
Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 49%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: tight share 44% at worst → 8% now
Of the 16 departures scheduled from Tampa (TPA) between 6:59 PM and 8:29 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 13. For 1 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into TPA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 6:59 PM–8:29 PM ESTTight turns 1 of 13Share 8%
What changed: late share 53% at worst → 27% now
Of 15 departures that took off between 4:38 PM and 5:38 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 4:38 PM–5:38 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 27%Typical 34%
Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 departures that took off between 4:00 PM and 5:00 PM EST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 4:00 PM–5:00 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 30%
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