tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay TPA departures

Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 58%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View TPAFlights at TPA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Tampa departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 49 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 18:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 58%

    What changed: 44% → 58% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 48 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.