tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay TPA departures

Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 65%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Tampa departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 16 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST · 5.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 65%

    What changed: 45% → 65% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 17 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.